El Niño 2026: What Washington Horse & Livestock Owners Should Know

A very strong El Niño is building in the Pacific, and NOAA’s October 8 update gives it an 83% chance of reaching historic strength this fall. For Washington, that does not guarantee a mild winter or a wet one. Forecasters are split, so the safest plan for horse and livestock owners is to prepare your hay, footing and water for both outcomes.

Where El Niño stands right now

El Niño is the warm phase of a Pacific Ocean pattern that shifts weather around the world. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says it is still strengthening, with ocean temperatures more than 4°C above average in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. For October through December, it puts the odds at 83% (up from 75% in September) that the event will exceed any El Niño on record back to 1950, and it expects a strong-to-very strong event to last through early 2027 (NOAA CPC, Oct. 8, 2026).

That is a big jump from March, when forecasters saw only a 1-in-3 chance of a strong event. NOAA updates its outlook monthly, so check the Climate Prediction Center page for the newest odds before you act on any single number.

What it could mean for Washington

The textbook El Niño pushes the Pacific storm track south toward California, which usually leaves the Northwest with a warmer winter and a slight lean toward drier weather. The seasonal outlook released in August pointed that way, with good odds of a warmer-than-average winter, no clear trend in precipitation, and a warm, dry fall (MyNorthwest, Aug. 24, 2026).

This event may not be textbook. Oregon’s state climatologist pointed out that in a “super” El Niño, of which there have been only three since 1980, the usual pattern can flip and bring more rain and mountain snow. Climatologists also cautioned that where this one ends up is uncertain, and that a weaker-than-expected El Niño could let drought continue through winter and spring (Washington State Standard, June 23, 2026).

Washington is also starting from a dry baseline. Ecology declared a statewide drought emergency on April 8 after a poor snowpack (Ecology order), and the Cascade snowpack melted two to five weeks earlier than normal this year. Water reserves are starting the winter from a low point.

Scenario	What to expect	What it means for your animals
Warm and dry	Mild temperatures, low snowpack, drought lingers	Water supply stays a worry, and pasture may need hay support for longer
Wet and stormy	Heavy rain, more mountain snow	Mud, flooded low spots, and harder hay storage and access

Hay and feed: decide before the weather does

Whichever way the winter goes, hay is the one cost you can control right now. A common rule of thumb is that a horse eats about 1.5 to 2% of its body weight in forage per day. For a 1,000 lb horse, that is 15 to 20 lb a day, or roughly 1.1 to 1.5 tons over a 150-day winter, before any waste. Multiply by your head count, add a cushion, and compare the total with what is already in your barn.

Buy early. A fourth straight year of drought declarations, plus the chance of stormy weather that complicates deliveries, are good reasons to fill the barn before you need it.
Store it dry. In a wet winter, stacks on bare ground wick up moisture. Use pallets or gravel, keep air moving, and fix roof and gutter leaks now. Moldy hay is a risk for colic and respiratory trouble.
Know what you are buying. Late-season and first-cutting hay differ in feel, leafiness and feeding value, so match the hay to the animal, whether that is an easy keeper, a hard keeper, or growing stock.

Mud, footing, water and shelter

If the wet winter arrives, mud is the main enemy. Animals standing in wet ground are prone to scratches, thrush and rain rot, and churned pasture is slow to recover. Add gravel or other footing at gates, feeders and water troughs, set aside a sacrifice paddock so your best pasture is protected, and make sure gutters and downspouts carry roof runoff away from animal areas.

If the dry winter arrives, water is the concern. Work out how many days of water you have if a well pump fails, and keep tanks, buckets and hoses ready to fill. Check troughs and float valves before the first cold snap rather than during it.

Either way, a dry, wind-protected place to stand pays off, so check roofs, stall drainage and windbreaks now while the weather is still cooperating.

Your pre-winter checklist

Calculate your winter hay need and compare it with what you have
Order or reserve hay before the first big storms
Move hay off the ground and fix roof or gutter leaks
Add gravel or footing at gates, feeders and troughs
Set up a sacrifice paddock for wet weather
Confirm your water backup (well pump, tanks, hoses)
Check NOAA’s monthly El Niño update and your local National Weather Service forecast

Not sure how much hay to stock for your animals? Ohana Farms can help you size your winter order at ohanahay.com.